Semiconductor articles

disengaging china semiconductor manufacturing opinion

Disengaging from China manufacturing is hard, but it's happening slowly

A hot potato: Like a train leaving the station, it now seems inevitable that US companies are moving to reduce, or entirely eliminate, their reliance on China. It took a long time to get started, companies had been complaining about changing conditions in China for a decade. The 2018 trade war was the spark that really got them moving, and their progress has only been gaining momentum since then. This process will take years, maybe decades, but at this point is probably unstoppable.
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Home Depot for DIY Chips: What's the going trend?

The chip companies are never going to really love this business
The big picture: Earlier this year we were reviewing Analyst Day slides from leading semiconductor companies and a clear theme emerged. Large companies are all shifting in a similar direction, posing some potential challenges for their long-term positions. More and more customers are looking for special purpose chips, a coping mechanism for dealing with the slowdown in Moore's Law. And the big players are all looking to support those customers.
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Opinion: The Android-ification of Cars

Cars are still less than 10% revenue for most chip companies
Why it matters: Over the past few years the semis industry has become somewhat obsessed with autos. Every major chip company now dedicates a fair amount of coverage to cars in all their investor presentations. Or at least it seems that way. In part that reflects a genuine growth in auto semis, and in part the tapering of growth in many other categories like mobile, PCs, etc.
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Taiwan says destroying TSMC in the event of a Chinese invasion is unnecessary

"Even if China got a hold of the golden hen, it won't be able to lay golden eggs"
In context: Once again, rising tensions between China and the US have put the spotlight on Taiwan and what would happen to TSMC, which manufactures more than half the world's semiconductors, in the event of an invasion. One proposal is to destroy the company's facilities, but the island's security chief said such a move is unnecessary.
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US-China semiconductor battle: Second and third order consequences

Not so obvious ripple effects
Why it matters: Earlier this month, the US government blocked the sale of specific chips to anyone in China. We see this as an important change by the government in the tactics they are deploying. The United States has gone from blocking specific companies in China, to blocking all companies and focusing on specific products. This is a big change, and opens up the question -- what exactly are they hoping to achieve? This matters obviously in that it can help us predict the outcome, but we increasingly hold the view that the government may not have entirely thought through how this will ultimately play out.